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Science alone clearly cannot provide answers to the many difficult questions of risk assessment. Of necessity, therefore, we as authors do make many nonscientific value judgments on issues of risk, using a set of broad guidelines that we think would be reasonable for society to adopt. These are the personal conclusions of two people who have attempted to inform themselves on the issues, not answers arrived at by the standard research procedures of biology, physics, or chemistry. So before we go further in discussing cures for Earth's environmental ailments, we would like to explain our general approach to environmental risks and benefits—the values we bring to our analysis.
Our basic value judgment in the area of risk is that both personal and social risks should be handled conservatively. How to be conservative is relatively easy to see when considering risks in one's personal environment. Statistically, the most important things to do to protect your own life and health are not to smoke (or chew) tobacco and to wear a seat belt when you drive. In those cases, you are avoiding well-known, well understood risks—although as ex-smokers we are also aware of the psychic pain involved in avoiding the horrendous risks of smoking. Avoiding overexposure to sunlight by wearing hats, long-sleeved shirts, and sunscreen when outdoors for long periods (especially in summer) is a way to minimize relatively painlessly another known and increasingly serious risk.
But there are many potential personal risks that are not so easily dealt with. What can one do about the repeated warnings of cancer threats in food, water, personal care products, and so on? How about cholesterol, saturated fats, sugar, and all that putatively bad stuff? Those are tough questions even for scientists to answer. It is often very difficult to assess tests of the safety of products or the health effects of various foods. Much work is done by looking for correlations—for example, finding out whether people in different cultures with different intakes of fats differ in their rates of heart disease. They do, and people who consume less saturated fat tend to have less occluded coronary arteries and fewer heart attacks. Direct testing is more difficult. In most cases, it would be unethical to conduct experiments on human beings. For instance, it would be unethical to dose a group of volunteers with high-cholesterol foods to see if they had more heart attacks, or to feed them high doses of the fungal poison aflatoxin to determine whether they suffered more cases of liver cancer. So other animals, often mice or rats, are substituted for people in tests.
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